Objectives: This study aimed to assess whether the current physician workforce in Korea is sufficient to meet future healthcare demands, considering demographic changes and increasing medical needs. The objective was to project the future supply and demand for physicians and identify potential regional disparities.

Methods: Data on outpatient and inpatient utilization rates were obtained from the 2018 Health Insurance Statistical Yearbook, and population projections were sourced from Statistics Korea (2017–2067). Medical demand was estimated by multiplying these utilization rates by the population projections. The supply of physicians was projected using a cohort-component model that incorporated medical school quotas and age-specific attrition rates. Two scenarios were developed to account for changes in productivity: Scenario 1 assumed a 50% decrease in productivity for physicians aged 65–75, and Scenario 2 assumed a 75% decrease. Additionally, regional projections were analyzed using data from provincial and secondary medical service areas.

Results: National-level projections suggest a looming shortage of physicians, despite an increase in medical school admissions. Both scenarios predict a physician shortage, particularly in regions such as North Gyeongsang, South Chungcheong, and Jeju Island, by 2047. In contrast, Seoul is likely to see a surplus of physicians. The regional analysis underscores substantial disparities in physician distribution, with underserved areas experiencing increasingly severe shortages.

Conclusion: The study concludes that without flexible adjustments to medical school admission quotas and healthcare delivery systems, Korea will face significant physician shortages in the coming decades. To address this, it is necessary to increase the number of physicians in underserved regions and improve the efficiency of healthcare utilization.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  

• Halted medical education and medical residents’ training in Korea, journal metrics, and appreciation to reviewers and volunteers
  Sun Huh
  Journal of Educational Evaluation for Health Professions.2025; 22: 1.     CrossRef
• Projection of Future Medical Expenses Based on Medical Needs and Physician Availability
  Hyejin Joo, Jinwook Hong, Jaehun Jung
  Journal of Korean Medical Science.2025;[Epub]     CrossRef