During the COVID-19 pandemic, the first seasonal influenza epidemic was
declared in the 37th week of 2022 in Korea and has continued through the
winter of 2023–2024. However, this finding has not been observed in
the United States and Europe. The present study aimed to determine whether
the prolonged influenza epidemic in Korea from 2022 to 2023 was caused by
using a different influenza epidemic threshold compared to the thresholds
used in the United States and Europe.
Methods:
Korea, the United States, and Europe use different methods to set seasonal
influenza epidemic thresholds. First, we calculated the influenza epidemic
thresholds for influenza seasons using the different methods of those three
regions. Using these epidemic thresholds, we then compared the duration of
influenza epidemics for the most recent three influenza seasons.
Results:
The epidemic thresholds estimated by the Korean method were lower than those
by the other methods, and the epidemic periods defined using the Korean
threshold were estimated to be longer than those defined by the other
regions’ thresholds.
Conclusion:
A low influenza epidemic threshold may have contributed to the prolonged
influenza epidemic in Korea, which was declared in 2022 and has continued
until late 2023. A more reliable epidemic threshold for seasonal influenza
surveillance needs to be established in Korea.
Citations
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